The domestic politics of greenhouse gas emissions reduction

The atmospheric scientists comprising the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  (IPCC) have advised that avoiding severe climate change requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 45% of the 2010 world total in 2030 and getting to net-zero emissions in 2050.  The 2010 world total was 34180.73 metric tons; reducing it by 45% requires not exceeding  18799.40 Metric tons in 2030.

There is wide agreement that asking most countries, particularly developing countries, to reduce  emissions by more than 20% between now and 2030 is not realistic under the current state of  technology available to them. For ease of analysis, assume that a 20% decline is the best that can  be secured from any country.

[The accompanying data file has two sheets, the 2020 data and a blank sheet named “working.”  It is good practice to leave your data set unmodified by copying the items of data you need onto  a separate working sheet before doing any calculations.]

Use the 2020 data in the accompanying excel file to determine whether a club or k-group  consisting of a) the 6 largest emitters, or b) the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South  Africa), or c) the USA and its longtime allies (Japan, the UK, the EU27 as a group, and  Australia) could form a club/k-group able to ensure that the world meets the 2030 goal by cutting  back their own emissions by 20% each. If not, what other countries would need to be added to  each of the three to form the needed club?

Based on the information below about the domestic politics of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in some major states and what you learned in class about collaboration games, identify which of the three potential clubs/k-groups has the greatest prospect of succeeding.