The modern state system

As discussed  the modern state system  which consists of states with clearly defined boundaries and that recognize each other’s sovereignty did not emerge until the mid-17th century. If we define a “state” as any territory that has become a full member of the United Nations (the largest and most powerful intergovernmental organization), the current state system has 193 states. Some potential alternatives to the “modern state system” include:

States forming into a single political system under one government (with substantial federal elements);  states forming into a small number of federal super-states/supranational organizations (like the European Union);  states breaking up into a very large number of small “sub-national” states (e.g., Scotland breaking off from the United Kingdom or Catalonia breaking off from Spain); and  states dissolving with nothing formal to take their place (i.e., “anarchy”). Which of these four outcomes do you think is likeliest to occur over the next several decades and why?