Which of the following best describes probabilistic decision making?

It’s impossible to get the correct outcome every time, so our goal is to do as well as we can over the long run.

It’s impossible to ever know whether a decision was good or bad.

It’s impossible to predict an outcome with any accuracy. Our decisions are just guesses.

Mistakes are generally the result of heuristic decisions.

New Jersey has begun using a statistical algorithm to set bail for criminal defendants. The algorithm uses various pieces of data to estimate the risk that the defendant will flee before his court hearing. Based on what we discussed in class, which of the following is true?

The algorithm is likely to be faster than a human at estimating defendants’ flight risk, but no more accurate.

The algorithm is likely to mimic human decisions very closely.

The algorithm is likely to be more accurate at estimating flight risk than a human would be.

The algorithm is likely to be less accurate at estimating flight risk than a human would be.

Which of the following statements is most accurate?

Although unstructured interviews are not usually very informative, people tend to trust them a lot.

Although unstructured interviews can be highly informative, people tend not to trust the information they provide.

An unstructured interview is the best way of assessing whether a candidate is qualified and well-suited for a given position.

People tend to distrust unstructured interviews because they are known to be uninformative.

People in an experiment were asked to choose a medical procedure for fighting a (hypothetical) disease outbreak. People were more likely to choose a given procedure if they were told “200 out of 600 people will be saved” than if they were told “400 out of 600 people will die.”

This is an example of a  [“compensatory”, “inconsistency”, “framing”, “validity”]  effect, and it illustrates the phenomenon of [“loss aversion”, “base rate neglect”, “algorithm aversion”, “dilution”]  .

According to the chapter we read, bounded ________  refers to the fact that we fail to notice failures of our own judgments, and bounded ________  refers to the fact that we pay more attention to our immediate concerns than to the future.

According to the article we read from Kahneman and colleagues (2016), prediction noise shows up as (pick two):

random differences between the predictions made by different people.

random fluctuations in the true criterion value over time.

random differences between predictions made by the same person at different times.

random fluctuations in the true criterion value between different settings or contexts.

consistent differences between peoples’ predictions and the true criterion value.

According to the lens model, which of the following explains poor predictions? (Pick two.)

We assign cues improper weights.

The cues we use have saturated validity values.

The cues we use have low validity.

There are too many predictive cues available to us.

Briefly describe the premortem decision making procedure, and explain its purpose.

[“Perceptual amnesia”, “Fugue state”, “Apperceptive agnosia”, “Associative agnosia”, “Social agnosia”, “Prosopagnosia”]   is a disruption of perceptual organization.

[“Perceptual amnesia”, “Social agnosia”, “Fugue state”, “Associative agnosia”, “Prosopagnosia”, “Apperceptive agnosia”]  is an inability to link visual patterns to stored memories.

[“Perceptual amnesia”, “Prosopagnosia”, “Apperceptive agnosia”, “Social agnosia”, “Associative agnosia”, “Fugue state”]  is an inability to recognize faces.

Research has found that highly superior autobiographical memory is:

a side effect of hippocampus damage.

probably real, but rare.

surprisingly common.

a myth.

A couple of studies in class examined learning of word lists. Which of the following best describes the findings?

Incidental learning is less effective than intentionally studying the word lists.

Processing word meaning is a good strategy for intentional learning, but does not lead to much incidental learning.

The need to generate the words from hints interferes with learning.

Memory is better if we process the meaning of the words than if we just read the words without thinking about them.